Jaguars are going to suck

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DON'T JUMP ON JAGS 8/13/03
Stephen Nover

Can anyone tell me how the Jacksonville Jaguars can possibly win more than seven games this season?
That's Jacksonville's regular season 'over/under' win total at Olympic sports book. I can't see the Jaguars winning more than four games. When it's all said and done, the Jaguars could be the worst team in the AFC.

Yes, worse even than the second-year Houston Texans.

Do you doubt this? OK, let's examine Jacksonville. The Jaguars had trouble stopping the run and lacked a consistent pass rush. The offense looks even worse.

Mark Brunell, who has slowed to a crawl, is fading quickly. First-round draft choice Byron Leftwich finally ended a 19-day holdout. Wide receiver Jimmy Smith has lost a step and there's little behind him. So desperate were the Jaguars for another wide receiver, they opened their checkbook for perennial underachiever J.J. Stokes. They would have been better off with J.J. Walker.

Fred Taylor is Jacksonville's only playmaker and threat. However, Taylor can't stay healthy. He's already missed the past two weeks with a bone bruise on his knee. The Jaguars' revamped and unsettled offensive line never will be able to keep the brittle Taylor in one piece. Unlike last year, there is not a proven back to replace Taylor because Stacey Mack has moved to Houston.

Sometimes you have to sink to the bottom before you can start to be good again. That's going to be the case with Jacksonville. Not only do the Jaguars have a first-year head coach in Jack Del Rio, but they are also breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators. So it figures there's going to be an adjustment period.

The Jaguars also must find a place-kicker. Their kicking game was so poor last year that the team was forced to pass on any field goals longer than 33-yards. A rookie is currently the leading place-kicking contender.

Jacksonville has already had defensive injuries. Several linemen are hurt, including Tony Brackens, who may be out a while. The Jaguars' big off-season signing was defensive end Hugh Douglas. Sadly, though, Douglas reported out of shape.

If all this isn't enough, the Jaguars have had major distractions in training camp. Besides Leftwich holding out, three players had to be rushed to the hospital because of heat stroke problems.

During the eight years Tom Coughlin was Jacksonville’s coach, the club never had a player go down with a heat-related illness. Coughlin may have been a stern taskmaster, but his coaching acumen and experience are going to be missed.

The Jaguars' schedule has them opening as a 'dog on the road to Carolina where they might have trouble breaking double-digits against an excellent Panthers' defense.

The Jaguars could win their second game at home against Buffalo, although the Bills certainly look improved. Road games at Indianapolis and Houston are next before the team returns home to meet San Diego and Miami.

The squad might defeat the Texans and Chargers, but I have my doubts if it can win on the road against Houston.

Looking at it very optimistically, that would be three wins heading into the team’s bye week. Games against Tennessee, at Baltimore, Indianapolis and at Tennessee follow, and I don't see any victories there.

The schedule continues with a road game against the Jets and home games against Tampa and Houston. Figure the Jaguars to beat the Texans at home, although Taylor could be on injured reserve by that time and an inexperienced body may be at quarterback.

The Jaguars close the season on the road against New England, at home versus New Orleans and at Atlanta. That means maybe a win against the Saints.

So, the best case scenario for the Jaguars is five victories. And that's being generous.
 

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Stephen,

With all that being said, I still like them as 3.5 point dogs on Opening Day at Carolina.

Big Lou
 

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Big Lou,
It is hard to lay those kind of points with Carolina. I like the Panthers this year, but obviously in 'dog type situations.
However, I can't see taking the Jaguars either in this spot with all the new adjustments. It's going to take time for their offensive line to mesh if it ever will.
It's a game I'm going to pass on.
 

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Actually, aside from the tone of your analysis, it looks better than I thought it was for the Jags. Stokes is a good addition and Douglas is among the very best at his position, and a healthy Taylor is coming back. They still have Brunell and Smith and they signed their top pick. Sounds good to me.

A new staff isn't necessarily a bad thing. Del Rio was an overachiever as a player and as an assistant coach, could be the same as head coach. I can't figure the overheated players in 80 degree weather, must be something in the water, but the effects of those incidents as well as the dings to veteran players shouldn't linger to opening day.
 

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Gridster I must respectfully disagree with some of your player assessements.
Stokes has been a tremendous disappointment in his pro career, Taylor already is hurt and both Brunell and Jimmy Smith are over-the-hill.
It's way too early to tell anything about Del Rio, but I have a feeling he may be in a little over his head during his first year as a head coach.
 

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Definitely OK to disagree with me on points of speculation, Stephen. Stokes is overrated, no question about it, but I don't think he's at the other end of the spectrum either. I consider him a NFL calibre receiver, no more, no less.

I think Brunell is an excellent QB. He cost me money early in his career when I bet against him, and he's made me a lot lately when I bet on him. I've heard Del Rio quoted as saying he may start somebody else. I suspect that's just lip service. I know there aren't any QBs on that team that compare to Brunell and I doubt if Del Rio could pick one up in the market. If I hear that Brunell got benched I'll join you in the "Jags suck" section.
 

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Stephen,

Thanks for the write-up and opinion. I have,nt fully assessed The Jaguars yet but Got the feeling that they were being underrated this season and read Brunell was as good as ever at camp.


However, wether you are right or wrong in your assessment matters nothing, I am more interested in your informed thoughts. Thanks and keep up the good work.

[This message was edited by winbet on August 13, 2003 at 04:13 PM.]
 

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Thank you Winbet for your nice words. I think we all agree that one of the keys to the Jags' season is how well Brunell plays.
The information I'm hearing is that he has lost much of his mobility, which was a key part of his effectiveness. I think the Jags' realize he's near the end because they drafted Leftwich. But because of his lengthy holdout, Leftwich is way behind the learning curve. Plus he has to learn a new offense from the one he operated in college.
I really think money can be made by betting the Jags "under" 7 wins.
 

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